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Vietnam economy has closed in 2017 with many outstanding achievements recorded. However, according to many economists, economic growth in 2018 is still a problem. What prospects for Vietnam economy 2018.

Written by Nam Huong Corp
2018-03-01


The impressive numbers closed in 2017 many positive changes
In 2017, reaching and exceeding all 13 targets of socio-economic development, outstanding GDP growth reached 6.7% - the highest level in almost 10 years. The economy also witnessed a series of record numbers in many fields: import-export turnover exceeded 400 billion USD; FDI capital reached 11 billion USD in the first 11 months, the highest ever; there are over 120,000 newly established enterprises. In addition, the successful organization of APEC's high-level week in November has helped Vietnam's status in the international arena, opening more investment opportunities.

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On the other hand, in recent years, the inflation rate tends to decrease markedly. 2017 is below 5% (lower than the average inflation rate for the period 2011-2017 is 6.5%). From 63.6% in 2016, public debt / GDP ratio has fallen to 62% this year. The growth rate of public debt is also tending to decrease; In the period 2011-2015, public debt growth will average 18.4%, 2016 will increase 15% and 201% in 2017. At the same time, the budget deficit is on the decline, the share of recurrent expenditure in state budget spending has fallen to 64.9% this year and is expected to be 64% by 2018. Along with that, the improved trade balance from trade deficit in 2015 (3.2 billion USD), 2016 trade surplus of 2.68 billion USD and the possibility of 2017 surplus trade balance.
In addition, according to the World Economic Forum's (WEF) global competitiveness assessment, Vietnam's competitiveness index has risen from 4.31 in 2016 to 4.4 in 2017. The competitiveness of Vietnam's economy has increased five levels compared to 2016 and increased 20 levels compared to five years ago.
Particularly with the development of industries and services, they are playing an important role in the growth of the economy. The output growth rate of the service sector was high, higher than that of industrial and construction output and agriculture, forestry and fishery. In addition, the contribution to service sector growth into growth was also highest.

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What prospects for the Vietnamese economy in 2018?
Vietnam is considered by many foreign investors as a "magnet" because not only preferential policies, a series of FTAs have been signed by the government but also investment for good education. At present, the proportion of skilled workers is rising, the rate of literate workers in Vietnam is higher than that of the two most populous countries, India and Malaysia, 60% of the 93 million people are in working age. The above positive points make FDI enterprises continue to boldly invest in Vietnam, however, the investment structure will be changed. In particular, foreign investors will focus on utilities in 2018 instead of focusing on the manufacturing industry in 2017 to maximize the benefits of investment when the sector is less consuming electricity power
Economic inflation below 4%

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Global trade in general and Vietnam's exports in particular will be affected by the change in US trade policy. In the country, the problems of the economy such as technology is not high, natural resources are not much while productivity, efficiency and competitiveness have changed but not really breakthrough. FNSC believes that inflation will be under pressure mainly from the adjustment of public service prices and food prices. The impact of monetary factors on inflation from 2017 to 2018 is not that great since the credit inflow in 2017 is estimated to be 2.04 times, down 0.77 times compared to 2016. Commodity prices gender will not put much pressure on inflation as forecasts less fluctuations in 2018. Oil prices are forecast to increase by 6% compared to 24% in 2017. Therefore, inflation forecast 2018 Equivalent to 2017, less than 4%. However, if electricity prices rise sharply, inflation may be higher.
GDP can reach 6.5 - 6.8%
Forecasts for economic prospects in 2018, experts said that with the positive basis of 2017, the outlook for 2018 continues to be positive. In the country, the overall supply of the economy is expected to improve through the benefit of supplier improvement policies in the spirit of Resolution 19, Resolution 35 of the Government. Specifically, the industry and construction sector will benefit from policies that encourage high-tech applications. Processing industry is forecasted to continue to grow well thanks to the expansion of investment by foreign direct investment enterprises. The service sector is also likely to grow strongly as in the past two years thanks to the growth of retail sales and international visitors to Vietnam increased rapidly. The private sector will remain the main driver of economic growth in 2018.

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6.5% for GDP is the optimal growth rate does not put pressure on inflation. Growth of 6.8% is achievable when stimulus measures are applied but will exert pressure on demand in 2018. In addition, if the policies improve, the growth rate GDP in 2018 could reach a higher level.

 According to Business Style Magazine

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